Governor Cuomo Details COVID-19 Micro-Cluster Metrics

In October 22, 2020

Queens Red and Orange Zones Move to “Yellow” Based on Progress Made Over Past 14 Days 

Rockland, Orange and Broome County Zones will Remain the Same Until They Meet Metrics to Reduce Restrictions 

New Focus Area Zones for Steuben and Chemung Counties 

Full Details on Metrics Available Here 

Statewide Positivity Rate is 1.62 Percent    

Positive Testing Rate in Hot Spot Areas is 6.61 Percent; New York State Positivity Without Red Zone Focus Areas Included is 1.42 Percent    

7 COVID-19 Deaths in New York State Yesterday    

Governor Andrew M. Cuomo today detailed New York State’s COVID-19 micro-cluster strategy metrics. After 14 days of data monitoring, the Governor outlined modifications to some current focus zones, established new ones in areas where there are recent upticks in cases, and set criteria for areas to exit a focus zone. New York’s micro-cluster strategy detects small outbreaks and takes action to eliminate them.

“Cluster zone” focus areas are designated based on geographic case prevalence and restrictions are implemented accordingly based on the severity of spread. Buffer zones with fewer restrictions are implemented in the areas outside the most impacted areas to help prevent further spread. After 14 days, data will be reviewed to determine whether a focus area has successfully reduced viral spread to the level where restrictions can be eased.

Changes to cluster zones and new cluster zones take effect tomorrow for impacted businesses and houses of worship, and Monday for impacted schools.

“We have what we believe is the most sophisticated COVID detection and elimination system of any state because we’ve spent time, we’ve invested and because New Yorkers are invested. What’s the best you can do? Detect the smallest outbreak as soon as it happens,” Governor Cuomo said. “Trace it back to where it starts, find a small outbreak or cluster, and jump on it. Quick action to contain it and eliminate it. That is the best you can do in this situation. You see an ember land in dry grass, ring the alarm, everybody run, stamp out the ember. The embers are what we call micro-clusters, and we can identify them from the testing data, from the hospitalization data, and mapping software.”

Identifying and Implementing Focus Zone

Daily data monitoring enables the State to identify areas that are experiencing a concerning increase in COVID spread. Once an area meets certain metrics – detailed below – that demonstrate substantial COVID spread, it may be designated a focus zone: a Red “Micro-Cluster Zone” (with accompanying Orange and/or Yellow buffer zones) or an Orange Warning Zone (with potential for accompanying Yellow Buffer Zone) or solely a Yellow Precautionary Zone.  In densely populated urban areas, two buffer zones – an Orange Buffer Zone and a Yellow Buffer  Zone may be required.

  • Red Zone — Micro-Cluster: A “Red Zone” focus area is put in place to contain spread from a specific, defined geographic area.
  • Orange Zone — Warning/Buffer: An Orange Zone area either is put in place primarily in densely populated urban areas as a tight buffer zone around a Red Zone micro-cluster (“Orange Buffer Zone”) area OR is implemented independently as a focus area based on the below metrics (“Orange Warning Zone”). The purpose of an Orange Buffer Zone is to 1) restrict activity to prevent further spread from Red Zone area; 2) provide a defined geographic area where metrics can be monitored daily to ensure COVID is not spreading beyond the Red Zone.
  • Yellow Zone — Precautionary/Buffer: A “Yellow Zone” area either is put in place as a broader buffer area to ensure COVID outbreak is not spreading into the broader community (“Yellow Buffer Zone”) OR is implemented independently based on the below metrics (“Yellow Precautionary Zone”). The purpose of a Yellow Buffer Zone is to 1) restrict some activity to help prevent further spread from Red and/or Orange Warning Zone area; 2) provide a larger defined geographic area where metrics can be monitored daily to ensure COVID is not spreading beyond the Red Zone or Orange Warning Zone.

Geographic Area

TARGET METRIC FOR ENTERING YELLOW PRECAUTIONARY ZONE

TARGET METRIC FOR ENTERING ORANGE WARNING ZONE

TARGET METRIC FOR ENTERING RED MICRO CLUSTER ZONE

ADDITIONAL FACTORS FOR ENTERING ALL ZONES

Tier 1

Geographic area (ZIP, census tract, etc.) is located within a county of 900,000 or more people or located within city of 90,000 or more people.

Included in Tier 1: New York City boroughs; Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Erie counties; cities of Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Albany, Yonkers

Geographic area has 7-day rolling average positivity above 2.5% for 10 days

AND

Geographic area has 10 or more new daily cases per 100,000 residents on 7-day average

Geographic area has 7-day rolling average positivity above 3% for 10 days

AND

Geographic area has 10 or more new daily cases per 100,000 residents on 7-day average

Geographic area has 7-day rolling average positivity above 4% for 10 days

AND

Geographic area has 10 or more new daily cases per 100,000 residents on 7-day average

AND

Geographic areas has minimum of 5 new cases per day on 7-day average for geographic areas (i.e. ZIP code) with 10,000 or more residents, minimum of 3 new cases on 7-day average per day for areas with less than 10,000 residents

AND

The increase in positive cases or positivity reflect community spread and cannot be mostly explained by a cluster in a single institution (e.g. nursing home, factory, college, etc.) or household transmission

AND

The State Department of Health (DOH), in consultation with the local department of health, finds that based on the above listed metrics, and other epidemiological factors, such as an upward trend in total and daily hospital admissions from residents of this geographic area, that a zone designation is appropriate.

Tier 2

Geographic area (ZIP, census tract, etc.) is located within a county of 150,000 or more people (and jurisdiction is not included in Tier 1).

Counties included in Tier 2 include:

Monroe; Onondaga; Orange; Rockland; Albany; Dutchess; Saratoga; Oneida; Niagara; Broome; Ulster; Rensselaer; and Schenectady counties

Geographic area has 7-day rolling average positivity above 3% for 10 days

AND

Geographic area has 12 or more new daily cases per 100,000 residents on 7-day average

Geographic area has 7-day rolling average positivity above 4% for 10 days

AND

Geographic area has 12 or more new daily cases per 100,000 residents on 7-day average

Geographic area has 7-day rolling average positivity above 5% for 10 days

AND

Geographic area has 12 or more new daily cases per 100,000 residents on 7-day average

Tier 3

Geographic area (ZIP, census tract, etc.) is located within a county of 50,000 or more people.

Counties in Tier 3 include:

Chautauqua; Oswego; Jefferson; Ontario; St. Lawrence; Tompkins; Putnam; Steuben; Wayne; Chemung; Clinton; Cayuga; Cattaraugus; Sullivan; Madison; Warren; Livingston; Herkimer; Washington; Otsego; Columbia; Genesee; Fulton; Franklin counties

Geographic area has 7-day rolling average positivity above 3.5% for 10 days

AND

Geographic area has 15 or more new daily cases per 100,000 residents on 7-day average

Geographic area has 7-day rolling average positivity above 4.5% for 10 days

AND

Geographic area has 15 or more new daily cases per 100,000 residents on 7-day average

Geographic area has 7-day rolling average positivity above 5.5% for 10 days

AND

Geographic area has 15 or more new daily cases per 100,000 residents on 7-day average

Tier 4

Geographic area (ZIP, census tract, etc.) is located within a county of less than 50,000 people

Counties in in Tier 4 include:

Montgomery; Tioga; Cortland; Chenango; Greene; Allegany; Delaware; Orleans; Wyoming; Essex; Seneca; Schoharie; Lewis; Yates; Schuyler; Hamilton counties

Geographic area has 7-day rolling average positivity above 4% for 10 days

AND

Geographic area has 15 or more new daily cases per 100,000 residents on 7-day average

Geographic area has 7-day rolling average positivity above 5% for 10 days

AND

Geographic area has 15 or more new daily cases per 100,000 residents on 7-day average

Geographic area has 7-day rolling average positivity above 6% for 10 days

AND

Geographic area has 15 or more new daily cases per 100,000 residents on 7-day average

Metrics to Exit a Focus Zone

After 14 days from being placed in a focus zone, the State DOH, in coordination with the local health department, and in consultation with global health experts, will determine whether data sufficiently demonstrate that the area has successfully reduced viral spread to a level able to be contained given testing, contact tracing and other health system metrics. Based on the below metrics and expert advisement, the State DOH will decide whether the Focus Zone will be extended, modified (redrawn geographic boundaries based on case prevalence and positivity data), or ended. For Orange and Yellow Zones that are put in place solely as “buffer zones” to monitor case spread beyond a designated focus zone, these will be evaluated based on positivity data, cases per capita, and daily hospital admissions over the entire 14 day period to ensure there are no signs of broader spread from the focus area that prompted the zone creation. If after 14 days there has been no notable increase in positivity, new cases, or new hospital admissions from the buffer zone, the buffer zone will – based on other epidemiological factors – become eligible to qualify for a new zone designation, or ending a zone designation, if appropriate.

Geographic Area

TARGET METRIC TO LEAVE ANY ZONE AREA

TARGET METRIC TO LEAVE ORANGE WARNING ZONE

TARGET METRIC TO LEAVE RED MICRO CLUSTER ZONE

ADDITIONAL FACTORS FOR ALL ZONE DESIGNATION DECISIONS

Tier 1

Geographic area (ZIP, census tract, etc.) is located within a county of 900,000 or more people or located within city of 90,000 or more people.

Included in Tier 1: New York City boroughs; Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Erie counties; cities of Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Albany, Yonkers

Geographic area demonstrates decline in positivity (daily 7-day rolling average) over 10-day period AND has positivity below 1.5% (7-day rolling average) for at least 3 consecutive days at end of 10-day period.

Geographic area demonstrates decline in positivity (daily 7-day rolling average) over 10-day period AND has positivity below 2% (7-day rolling average) for at least 3 consecutive days at end of 10-day period.

Geographic area demonstrates decline in positivity (daily 7-day rolling average) over 10-day period AND has positivity below 3% (7-day rolling average) for at least 3 consecutive days at end of 10-day period.

OR

The State Department of Health (DOH), in consultation with the local department of health, may find that based on the above listed metrics, epidemiological considerations and/or other relevant factors, or other circumstances that a new zone designation is appropriate, or further data is required before a new zone designation can occur. Additional considerations include:

  • Trends in the daily hospital admissions from the geographic area
  • A finding that new cases are tied to a specific congregate facility, or defined cluster
  • Increased compliance and enforcement actions taken by local government
  • Community cooperation to reduce viral spread

Tiers 2, 3, 4 Geographic Areas (Monroe; Onondaga; Orange; Rockland; Albany; Dutchess; Saratoga; Oneida; Niagara; Broome; Ulster; Rensselaer; Schenectady; Chautauqua; Oswego; Jefferson; Ontario; St. Lawrence; Tompkins; Putnam; Steuben; Wayne; Chemung; Clinton; Cayuga; Cattaraugus; Sullivan; Madison; Warren; Livingston; Herkimer; Washington; Otsego; Columbia; Genesee; Fulton; Franklin; Montgomery; Tioga; Cortland; Chenango; Greene; Allegany; Delaware; Orleans; Wyoming; Essex; Seneca; Schoharie; Lewis; Yates; Schuyler; Hamilton counties)

Geographic area demonstrates decline in positivity (daily 7-day rolling average) over 10-day period AND has positivity below 2% (7-day rolling average) for at least 3 consecutive days at end of 10-day period.

Geographic area demonstrates decline in positivity (daily 7-day rolling average) over 10-day period AND has positivity below 3% (7-day rolling average) for at least 3 consecutive days at end of 10-day period.

Geographic area demonstrates decline in positivity (daily 7-day rolling average) over 10-day period AND has positivity below 4% (7-day rolling average) for at least 3 consecutive days at end of 10-day period.

Modifications to Current Cluster Zones and New Cluster Zones 

Brooklyn – Click Here for Map 

Over the past 10 days:

  • Red “Micro-Cluster” Zone: 7.4% – 5.5% (does not meet criteria to exit red zone)
  • Orange Buffer Zone: 2.6% – 2.7% (meets criteria – based on no notable case increase for a buffer zone – for designation as Yellow Buffer Zone)
  • Yellow Buffer Zone: 1.5% – 1.7% (does not meet metric to exit; remains Yellow Buffer Zone)

Queens – Kew Gardens/Forest Hills – Click Here for Map 

This map has been updated to include Ozone Park neighborhood that qualifies for a Yellow Zone designation.

Over the past 10 days:

  • Red “Micro-Cluster” Zone: 4.7% – 2.5% (meets criteria for Red Zone exit – below 3% – and meets the metric for Yellow Zone entrance – above 2.5%)
  • Orange Buffer Zone: 1.9% – 1.6% (meets criteria – based on no notable case increase for a buffer zone – for designation as Yellow Buffer Zone)
  • Yellow Buffer Zone: 1.9% – 2.1% (does not meet metric to exit; remains Yellow Buffer Zone)

Queens – Far Rockaway – Click Here for Map 

Over the past 10 days:

  • Red “Micro Cluster” Zone: 3.7% – 1.8% (meets criteria for Red Zone exit – below 3% – and does not meet requirement to exit all zones (1.5%) – designated as Yellow Zone)
  • Orange Buffer Zone: 4.0% – 1.7% (meets criteria – based on no notable case increase for a buffer zone – for designation as Yellow Buffer Zone)
  • Yellow Buffer Zone: 4.4% – 3.5% (does not meet metric to exit; remains Yellow Buffer Zone)

Rockland County – Click Here for Map 

Over the past 10 days:

  • Red “Micro Cluster” Zone: 11.6% – 4.8% (does not meet criteria to exit red zone)
  • Yellow Buffer Zone: 9.1% – 6.0% (does not meet metric to exit; remains Yellow Buffer Zone)

Orange County – Click Here for Map 

Over the past 10 days:

  • Red “Micro Cluster” Zone: 12.8% – 4.2% (does not meet criteria to exit red zone)
  • Yellow Buffer Zone: 19.0% – 1.6% (does not meet metric to exit; remains Yellow Buffer Zone)

Broome County – Click Here for Map 

Over the past 10 days:

  • Yellow Precautionary Zone: 4.8% – 4.6% (does not meet criteria to exit yellow precautionary zone)

Steuben County – New Zone – Click Here for Map (note: a portion of the Steuben zone extends into Chemung County) 

  • New Zone: Meets criteria for new Yellow Precautionary Zone

Chemung County – New Zone – Click Here for Map 

  • New Zone: Meets criteria for new Orange Warning Zone (Yellow Buffer Zone implemented as well)

Today’s data is summarized briefly below:

  • Patient Hospitalization – 950 (+8)
  • Patients Newly Admitted – 152
  • Hospital Counties – 45
  • Number ICU – 201 (+7)
  • Number ICU with Intubation – 103 (+4)
  • Total Discharges – 78,645 (+115)
  • Deaths – 7
  • Total Deaths – 25,679

Each region’s percentage of positive test results reported over the last three days is as follows:

REGION

SUNDAY

MONDAY

TUESDAY

Capital Region

1.1%

0.8%

0.8%

Central New York

1.1%

2.1%

1.9%

Finger Lakes

1.5%

1.4%

1.7%

Long Island

1.0%

0.9%

1.6%

Mid-Hudson

1.4%

1.7%

2.6%

Mohawk Valley

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

New York City

1.3%

1.3%

1.6%

North Country

1.3%

1.3%

0.6%

Southern Tier

1.2%

1.8%

1.3%

Western New York

0.9%

1.2%

2.0%

Each New York City borough’s percentage of positive test results reported over the last three days is as follows:

BOROUGH

SUNDAY

MONDAY

TUESDAY

Bronx

1.2%

0.9%

1.3%

Brooklyn

1.5%

1.8%

2.2%

Manhattan

0.8%

1.0%

0.9%

Queens

1.6%

1.4%

1.7%

Staten Island

1.3%

1.5%

2.3%

Of the 488,506 total individuals who tested positive for the virus, the geographic breakdown is as follows:

County

Total Positive

New Positive

Albany

3,460

24

Allegany

224

4

Broome

3,060

57

Cattaraugus

434

17

Cayuga

332

30

Chautauqua

845

40

Chemung

1,381

49

Chenango

337

6

Clinton

220

5

Columbia

659

2

Cortland

451

15

Delaware

161

2

Dutchess

5,366

11

Erie

12,574

61

Essex

194

0

Franklin

78

1

Fulton

360

0

Genesee

372

1

Greene

482

5

Hamilton

16

0

Herkimer

374

3

Jefferson

193

1

Lewis

62

5

Livingston

256

6

Madison

541

4

Monroe

6,850

52

Montgomery

257

1

Nassau

48,864

133

Niagara

1,986

18

NYC

256,046

839

Oneida

2,617

18

Onondaga

5,121

69

Ontario

603

5

Orange

13,258

40

Orleans

376

8

Oswego

599

5

Otsego

369

1

Putnam

1,755

3

Rensselaer

1,047

7

Rockland

17,453

184

Saratoga

1,229

10

Schenectady

1,516

6

Schoharie

101

0

Schuyler

104

4

Seneca

131

3

St. Lawrence

372

4

Steuben

898

14

Suffolk

48,234

113

Sullivan

1,694

12

Tioga

478

19

Tompkins

563

7

Ulster

2,428

9

Warren

441

2

Washington

326

0

Wayne

393

7

Westchester

39,694

78

Wyoming

172

5

Yates

99

1

Yesterday, 7 New Yorkers died due to COVID-19 in New York State, bringing the total to 25,679. A geographic breakdown is as follows, by county of residence:

Deaths by County of Residence

County

New Deaths

Kings

5

Schuyler

1

Westchester

1